EUR/JPY holds below nine and 50 period EMAs as RSI sits near 41

EUR/JPY is trading with a bearish near term tone, pinned below both the nine period and 50 period Exponential Moving Averages. Those two averages now sit as a layered cap above price, and the 14 day Relative Strength Index is hovering near 41, a reading that points to subdued momentum rather than an aggressive recovery.

On the downside, the chart work puts initial support at the 12 month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025. Below that sits the lower boundary of a descending channel around 175.10. A break under that confluence zone would open the way toward the 15 month low at 169.72.

On the upside, the first barrier is the nine day EMA at 177.52, followed by the descending channel's upper boundary near 178.80. The 50 day EMA at 179.74 sits above those. A move through that confluence resistance zone would signal a bullish reversal and open the area around the all time high of 187.95, reached on April 17.

The yen side of the story carries a hawkish tilt. Bank of Japan official Himino flagged upside price risks from strong AI related demand lifting capex and exports, with underlying inflation nearing the 2% target. He said financial conditions remain accommodative and real interest rates are low, and warned that postponing policy changes could trigger inflation risks and damage the economy.

For retail traders running this pair on a charting platform, the levels to load are 175.70, 175.10, 169.72 on the downside and 177.52, 178.80 and 179.74 overhead. Check that your EMA and RSI settings match the nine period, 50 period and 14 day values referenced here, and keep an eye on spreads around BoJ commentary, when yen pairs can widen.

Desk rewrite from a fxstreet.com report.

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