AUD/JPY holds below 100-day SMA as RBA and BoJ rate signals shift

AUD/JPY is trading with a modestly bearish bias, holding below its 100-day simple moving average while staying above the 20-day Bollinger midline, according to the latest technical read. The pair was near 110.50, with the Relative Strength Index around 50 pointing to neutral momentum and consolidation rather than a decisive reversal.

The rate picture on both sides of the pair moved this week. Reserve Bank of Australia board member Andrew Hauser said the inflation outlook is materially worse than the bank forecast, and the odds of a November hike climbed from 30% to 45%, according to the Guardian. On the Japanese side, BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said underlying inflation is moving securely toward the 2% target, and Governor Kazuo Ueda said it is near that target and that long-term rates would likely rise steadily with any short-term policy rate increase.

Japan's external sector data also drew attention. Deutsche Bank analysts noted exports rose 16.7% year on year in September, the 13th consecutive month of gains, though below the 21.3% expected, while imports rose 18.9% against a 20.4% forecast. The softer import outcome helped narrow the trade deficit to 536.6 billion yen from 1.11 trillion yen the previous month.

On the charts, resistance sits at the upper Bollinger band around 111.15, then the 100-day SMA near 112.10. Above that, the June 16 high of 113.55 and the July 27 high of 114.67 come into view. Support is at the 20-day Bollinger midline around 110.20, then the 110.00 level, with the lower Bollinger band near 109.20 reopening deeper losses if broken.

For traders running this pair on a platform, the levels to watch are the 100-day SMA and the 20-day Bollinger midline, both of which many charting tools plot by default, so check that your indicator settings match the daily timeframe. Anyone tracking RBA pricing should verify that their rate probability feed reflects the shift to 45% ahead of the November meeting, and spread behavior around the event is worth monitoring on whichever app or API you use.

Desk rewrite from a fxstreet.com report.

Trading one of these? Fund a prop account

VFunded is the house pick: simulated capital, four routes, up to 90% split, rules published before checkout. See VFunded routes.